Key Numbers for NFL Totals Betting

Key Numbers NFL
September 7, 2022

When betting on NFL totals, it is important to understand the key numbers for each game. These are the points at which the odds of either team winning change significantly. If you are unaware of what these numbers are, you could be leaving money on the table.

In this blog post, we will explain everything you need to know about key numbers when betting on NFL totals. We will answer all of your questions, and give you a comprehensive overview of what you need to know in order to make smart bets!

NFL totals, particularly those relating to totals on specific prop bets on players or teams, continue to gain popularity. Due to their frustration with the results of ATS wagering, more and more football bettors are realizing the importance of learning how to use totals betting in the NFL as a very effective way to approach the sport.

What Are Key Numbers?

Key numbers are the points at which the odds of either team winning change significantly. In order to find these numbers, you need to look at the point spread and total for each game. The point spread is how many points one team is favored by over another. The total is the combined score of both teams.

For example, let's say that the point spread for a game is -14, and the total is 45. This means that one team is favored to win by 14 points, and the total score of both teams is expected to be 45 points.

The key numbers in this game would be 28 and 42. If the favorite team wins by 28 points or more, then they have covered the point spread. If the combined score of both teams is 42 points or less, then the game has gone Under the total.

Why are key numbers important?

key numbers are important because they can help you make money! If you know what the critical numbers are, you can bet on them with confidence. For example, let's say that you bet on the favorite team to cover the point spread, and they win by 28 points. You would have won your bet!

On the other hand, if you had bet on the game to go Under the total, and it ended with a combined score of 42 points, you would also have won your bet.

Understanding the Key Numbers and Their Value

Even though extra points and two-point conversions have increased and become more challenging, the most basic football statistics still exist.

Here are the ten most prominent numbers that NFL games have landed since 2015: 41, 40, 51, 47, 44, 43, 50, 55, 33 and 37.

These are the most important from a betting standpoint, particularly when the oddsmakers publish betting odds that fall exactly on them or a half-point on either side.

Why is this important? When you mentally calculate these results and see them listed, it becomes fairly easy.

  • 41 points โ€“ 21-20, 24-17 and 27-14
  • 40 points โ€“ 23-17 and 24-16
  • 51 points โ€“ 27-24, 28-23 and 31-20
  • 47 points โ€“ 24-23, 27-20 and 30-17
  • 44 points โ€“ 24-20, 27-17 and 30-14

As football bettors, we are very familiar with each and every one of these results. These 10 total scores all fall within a range of three to four percent of where all games ultimately end up, and the same is true for the other five numbers mentioned.

It's crucial to be able to handicap a total on the right side using research, statistical analysis, and knowledge of the two similarly matched opponents. And one aspect you seldom run into is total that have juiced odds. Through research, statistical analysis, and knowledge of the two matched opponents, it's critical to be able to handicap a total on the right side. And one aspect that you hardly ever encounter is totals with boosted odds.

Thanks for reading! We hope that this article has helped explain key numbers and their value when betting on NFL totals. Good luck!