Key Numbers for NFL Point Spreads

Key numbers point spread
September 12, 2022

When it comes to NFL point spreads, key numbers are important. What are key numbers? Key numbers are the point spreads that have the most impact on the game. Bettors need to be aware of these key numbers and understand how they affect the game.

In this blog post, we will explain everything you need to know about key numbers for NFL point spreads. We will answer all of your questions, and provide you with a complete overview of this important topic. Don't bet on football without understanding key numbers first!

Recognizing Important Numbers For NFL Point Spreads

Most point spreads use a half-point. This is because the spread is designed to split the bet evenly between the two teams. However, there are some key numbers that don't use a half-point. These key numbers are:

  • 3
  • 7
  • 10
  • 14

The reason these numbers are so important is that they have a higher likelihood of being the margin of victory in an NFL game. Let's take a look at each one individually:

Three is by far the most common margin of victory in the NFL. In fact, nearly one third of all games are decided by three points or less. If you're betting on a favorite that is - three points or less, be prepared for a close game.

Seven is the next most common margin of victory. Games decided by seven points make up just under 20% of all NFL games. If you're betting on an underdog that is + seven points or more, be prepared for a close game.

Ten points is the next key number to be aware of. While it doesn't happen as often as three and seven point margins, ten point margins are still significant. Just over 12% of NFL games are decided by ten points or more.

The last key number is fourteen. Games decided by fourteen points make up just under 11% of all NFL games. Bettors should be aware that favorites rarely win by more than fourteen points, and underdogs rarely lose by more than fourteen points.

What Are The Important Football Numbers For Against The Spread Betting?

While the three, seven, ten, and fourteen point margins are important for point spread betting, there are other key numbers to be aware of when it comes to against the spread (ATS) betting.

The most important number for ATS betting is six. Why is six so important? Because favorites win by six points or more just under 50% of the time. This means that if you're betting on a favorite, you need them to win by more than six points in order to cover the spread.

Another important number for ATS betting is zero. Zero is important because it's the most common margin of victory for underdogs. This means that if you're betting on an underdog, they have a good chance of winning outright if they're only getting + six points.

Finally, bettors should be aware of the five and ten point margins. These are important because they're common margins of victory for both favorites and underdogs. Five and ten point ATS wins happen almost 20% of the time.

Taking Advantage of Key Numbers

Now that you understand the importance of key numbers, it's time to learn how to take advantage of them. The best way to do this is by using a key number system.

A key number system is a betting strategy that takes advantage of the most common margins of victory in NFL games. The goal of a key number system is to win more ATS bets by only betting on games where the favorite is expected to win by six points or more, or the underdog is expected to lose by less than six points.

The great thing about key number systems is that they're relatively simple to use. All you need to do is find the right games to bet on and then follow your system.

Now that you are aware of the crucial figures for NFL point spreads, you can start to make smarter bets. Be sure to keep these numbers in mind when choosing your bets, and you'll be on your way to success!