Kelly Criterion For Online Sports Betting

Kelly Criterion
August 24, 2022

The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula that can be used when gambling, in order to make sure you are betting in a way that gives you the best chance of winning. The theory behind the Kelly Criterion is that you should always bet an amount that corresponds to the size of your edge - in other words, the percentage by which you expect to win.

This article will explain everything you need to know about using the Kelly Criterion for online sports betting, including how to calculate your edge and how to put the theory into practice. We'll answer all of your questions so that by the end of this post you'll be able to gamble like a pro!


The Kelly Criterion was first published in 1956 by John L. Kelly Jr, who worked at Bell Labs at the time. The original paper was entitled "A New Interpretation of Information Rate" and it described a way to maximize your long-term wealth when gambling.

Since then, the Kelly Criterion has been used by gamblers all over the world as a way to ensure they are always betting with an edge. Many successful gamblers have made a fortune using the Kelly Criterion, and it is considered to be one of the most important theories in gambling. In fact, some people believe that anyone who fails to use the Kelly Criterion is almost certainly going to lose money in the long run!

So, what exactly is the Kelly Criterion and how can you use it to make sure you are always betting with an edge? Read on to find out.

How To Calculate Your Edge

The first step in using the Kelly Criterion is to calculate your edge. This simply means finding out the percentage by which you expect to win. For example, if you are betting on a coin toss and you expect to win 50% of the time, then your edge is 50%.

It's important to be as accurate as possible when calculating your edge. If you overestimate your edge then you will end up risking too much money, and if you underestimate your edge then you will not be making full use of your advantage.

There are a few different ways to calculate your edge when betting on sports. The most common method is to use statistical analysis, which involves looking at past data in order to make predictions about future outcomes.

If you don't have the time or expertise to do this yourself, then you can always find someone who does. There are many tipsters and handicappers who sell their picks online, and they will usually give you an accurate estimate of your edge. Once you have calculated your edge, the next step is to find out how much money you should bet. This is where the Kelly Criterion comes in.

How To Use The Kelly Criterion

The Kelly Criterion is a formula that tells you how much money you should bet, in order to maximize your long-term profits. The formula is as follows:

(Edge / Odds) x Bet Size = Kelly Bet

If the odds of winning are not evens, then you will need to do a little bit of calculation. Let's say the odds of winning are 0.60 (i.e. you will get your stake back plus 60% if you win). In this case, the Kelly Bet would be:

(0.50 / 0.60) x 100 = 83.33%

This means you should bet 83% of your money, as this gives you the best chance of winning in the long run.

It's important to note that the Kelly Criterion only works in the long run - it doesn't guarantee that you will win every time you use it! This is because in any given bet there is always a chance that you will lose, no matter how big your edge is.

The Kelly Criterion simply ensures that, over time, your winnings will be greater than your losses. This is what makes it such an important tool for gamblers.

Putting It Into Practice

Now that you know how to calculate your edge and how to use the Kelly Criterion, it's time to put it into practice. The best way to do this is by finding a reputable online sportsbook and placing some bets!

Once you have found a bookmaker that you can trust, it's time to start placing some bets. When doing this, make sure you always use the Kelly Criterion to calculate how much money you should bet. This will ensure that you are always making the most profitable bet possible.

The Kelly Criterion is a very popular betting strategy that many people use in order to maximize their profits. It is based on the idea of finding an edge and then using that edge to your advantage. In order to find your edge, you need to first calculate your win percentage. Once you know your win percentage, you can then use the Kelly Criterion formula to calculate how much money you should bet. If you stick to these principles then you should be well on your way to becoming a successful gambler!